Is Free TV Finished? Why Its Too Early to Predict the Demise of Free Broadcasting.

Seemingly every day I hear the chattering classes (of which I'm a member) predict the demise of free broadcasting in favor of a subscription-based on-demand model. Variously, they predict that traditional broadcasters will go the way of the dinosaurs while (fill in the blank) Google, Yahoo, Verizon, ATT, Crown Castle, satellite, or even your local cable company, etc. will provide a much improved service. They predict, with some reason, that the age of a broadcast schedule designed to hit as broad a cross-section of humanity as possible without regard to particular interests is doomed in view of the "long tail" phenomenon. They predict that mass media will be supplanted by "my media" tailored to the consumer's unique interests. And they predict that consumers would rather pay for this privilege so they can receive what they want whenever they want. However, these predictions may be a case of punditry overkill for several reasons related to economics and basic human psychology .

First, our willingness to pay for subscription-based products is limited by our ability to pay -- of course! As the range of things that are free becomes replaced with subscription-based requirements (much like the "Enclosure" movement in the Middle Ages), consumers and their households will inevitably face greater pressure on their wallets. In other words, consider a world (not so far away) in which you have to pay for gas, groceries, schooling for the kiddies, commuting costs, health care, and on top of that: cell phone service, broadband access, TV service, satellite radio, and I-pod subscription. Surely the ability to pay is not infinite. Eventually the financially stressed household (of which the U.S. has many) will have to choose which things to pay for. Would they chose TV over groceries? Probably not. Admittedly, while our household is not representative (anecdote is not data), the reason why we cling to free TV is in part because we'd rather pay for other things.

Second, the predictions of these media technorati are premised on a misunderstanding of human nature. People don't often know what they want. They only have their wants clarified and confirmed by the influence of other people. This is why John Donne famously observed that "no man is an island." In this regard, cognitive psychologists have confirmed that many of our personality and cognitive traits derive from our sociability. No "recommender software" a la Amazon will be sufficiently able to replicate the power of the water cooler. Any technology that relies on isolating people within their bubble of experience will fail to recognize this basic human fact.

Third, people like to be surprised. The delight in the new and the excitement and feeling of discovery that accompanies the encounter with our peers is an indispensable element of what it means to be human. There is a deep human need for novelty that might not be best served by algorithms, no matter how complex, that seek in essence to pander to our expectations rather than broadening our horizons. While pandering may be one element of successful consumerism, it is not the only element. Morever, there are deeper human needs that are served by the broadcast media than the pleasure we experience in being pandered to. Broadcast provides a shared collective experience for people (like fathers and sons) who do not wish to talk to one another about other things.

Lastly, there is a deep human penchant for passivity that is not served by these new technologies that require active engagement. This is not to say that there is no role for interactivity. But a world of interactivity will never effectively supplant the human need for comfort, companionship and coercion (In this regard, George Orwell was a particularly perspicacious observer of the human condition) that broadcast media is particularly apt at exploiting.

On the whole, the new always-me, my-time technology may become a fixture of some (but not all) households within a certain class. But it will not effectively eliminate the enjoyment of broadcast media any time soon for the rest of us.